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Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Can India repeat Bangladesh in Baluchistan? (Analysis by a Pakistani)

Image Courtesy @The quint

Baluchistan is an important province of Pakistan. Baluchistan covers 44% of the total area of ​​Pakistan. It is a region of Rocky Mountains, deserts, delusional oases and beautiful beaches. It is rich in minerals and its geographical position is very important, which is why it is in the eyes of many world powers. Russia once wanted access to its warm waters, which China now has in the form of a CPEC. Apart from other world powers, India also has a keen eye on the region. Pakistan alleges that India encourages separatist movements here and that terrorism is funded from its consulates in Afghanistan.
The separation of Baluchistan from Pakistan as they did in East Pakistan, is often talked about by the Indian media and its deep state. In this regard, there is talk of Ajit Doval where he talks about separating Baluchistan from Pakistan. Besides, Narendra Modi stood on the Red Fort in 2016 and talked about having contacts of Baloch people with him. In this article we analyze in depth whether India can replicate Bangladesh in Baluchistan. There are four points regarding it as follows
1- The East Pakistan border was surrounded on three sides by India and it had no land connection with West Pakistan. West Pakistan's connection to East Pakistan was possible only through air and sea sources, which India had cut off before invading East Pakistan, shutting down Pakistan's supply line and benefiting India in the war. Baluchistan, on the other hand, has no border with India and is well connected to the rest of Pakistan. India has to use Afghan land for teasing in Baluchistan and that is possible as long as there is a Northern Alliance and the current puppet government in Afghanistan. After the US deal with the Taliban, It will be difficult.
2- The races of Baluchistan are very different from the races of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was a densely populated area with almost all ethnic Bengalis, while Baluchistan is a relatively sparsely populated area with a large portion of the population being Pakhtuns, most of whom are patriots. It was easier to sow the seeds of racism in East Pakistan. Some Baloch tribes and chiefs had problems with Pakistan but many Baloch tribes are patriotic Pakistanis. While Pakistan has learned a lot from East Pakistan and launched many development projects and programs to win the hearts of the people, the Ehsas Program and Aghaz-e-Haqooq Balochistan program are at the forefront. In addition, the general amnesty of Baloch militants is at the top of the list, so the chances of India succeeding by fanning the flames of racism are slim.
3- The mistakes of some Pakistani leadership and some conspiracies of India aroused hatred in East Pakistan and only after nine months of armed struggle and then India jumped into the war, East Pakistan became separated. The people of East Pakistan hated Pakistan to such an extent that if a Pakistani plane crashed in a war and a Pakistani pilot jumped, the Bengalis killed him or handed him over to the Indians, while if an Indian plane crashed, its pilot was hidden by them. This is not the case in Baluchistan. Previous armed struggles have been failed in Baluchistan and the current one is on decline.
4- Besides, if India wants to separate Baluchistan, it will have to fight a full-scale war with Pakistan, in which Pakistan has the option of an atomic bomb, which India will not want at all. In 1971, there was also a war on the western front in which India did not get any significant victory. Therefore, this option is also impractical for India.
 In this article, I wrote about India's Baluchistan ambitions and its rants about repeating Bangladesh episode with Baluchistan. It is to be decided by the reader that whether it is some practical option for India or just some score leveling with Pakistan on Kashmir by India.


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